Fagiano Okayama 2–0 Fujieda MYFC: Result & Stats

Fagiano Okayama

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Fujieda MYFC

11/3/2024

J2 League · Round 37City Light Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Fagiano Okayama46%

×Draw26%

Fujieda MYFC27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fagiano OkayamaExpected goals in this matchFujieda MYFC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.04

Fagiano Okayama

1.45

Fujieda MYFC

1.04

Fagiano Okayama creates 39% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 59 away

1.22

creates per match

1.12

0.96

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Fagiano Okayama

1.22

Fujieda MYFC

1.12

allows per match

Fagiano Okayama

0.96

Fujieda MYFC

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fagiano Okayama+0.00on par

Fujieda MYFC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fagiano Okayama ↓

Fujieda MYFC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Fagiano Okayama or draw

73%

Fagiano Okayama or Fujieda MYFC

74%

Draw or Fujieda MYFC

54%

Winning margin

Fagiano Okayama wins by 2+

23%

Fujieda MYFC wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Fagiano Okayama 1+ goals

77%

Fagiano Okayama 2+ goals

42%

Fagiano Okayama 3+ goals

18%

Fujieda MYFC 1+ goals

65%

Fujieda MYFC 2+ goals

28%

Fujieda MYFC 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Fagiano Okayama (draw refunded)

63%

Fujieda MYFC (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fagiano Okayama at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.96 · 147 matches

Fujieda MYFC away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.68 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fagiano Okayama attack 1.22 + Fujieda MYFC defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.45

Fujieda MYFC attack 1.12 + Fagiano Okayama defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Fagiano Okayama scores more

46%

level

26%

Fujieda MYFC scores more

27%

Fagiano Okayama at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Fagiano Okayama will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff