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Fagiano Okayama vs Blaublitz Akita — J2 League 2018

Fagiano Okayama
Fagiano Okayama
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Blaublitz Akita
Blaublitz Akita
11/5/2023J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 41City Light Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Fagiano Okayama42%
×Draw28%
Blaublitz Akita30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fagiano Okayama
1.25
Blaublitz Akita
1.02

Fagiano Okayama creates 23% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 101 away

creates per match

Fagiano Okayama
1.22
Blaublitz Akita
1.08

allows per match

Fagiano Okayama
0.96
Blaublitz Akita
1.28

finishing

Fagiano Okayama+0.00on par
Blaublitz Akita+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fagiano Okayama ↓

Blaublitz Akita →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Fagiano Okayama or draw
70%
Fagiano Okayama or Blaublitz Akita
72%
Draw or Blaublitz Akita
58%

Winning margin

Fagiano Okayama wins by 2+
18%
Blaublitz Akita wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Fagiano Okayama 1+ goals
71%
Fagiano Okayama 2+ goals
36%
Fagiano Okayama 3+ goals
13%
Blaublitz Akita 1+ goals
64%
Blaublitz Akita 2+ goals
27%
Blaublitz Akita 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Fagiano Okayama (draw refunded)
58%
Blaublitz Akita (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fagiano Okayama at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.96 · 147 matches

Blaublitz Akita away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.28 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fagiano Okayama attack 1.22 + Blaublitz Akita defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.25

Blaublitz Akita attack 1.08 + Fagiano Okayama defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Fagiano Okayama scores more
42%
level
28%
Blaublitz Akita scores more
30%

Fagiano Okayama at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Fagiano Okayama will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fagiano Okayama vs Blaublitz Akita

Blaublitz Akita beat Fagiano Okayama 2-0 in J2 League on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at City Light Stadium in Okayama.