Fagersta Södra IK 0–3 Stockholm Internazionale

Fagersta Södra IK

FT

0 – 3

Stockholm Internazionale

8/8/2020

Division 2 - Norra Svealand · Norra Svealand - 3Onsjövallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Fagersta Södra IK9%

×Draw13%

Stockholm Internazionale79%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fagersta Södra IKExpected goals in this matchStockholm Internazionale

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.98

3.15

Fagersta Södra IK

0.98

Stockholm Internazionale

3.15

Stockholm Internazionale creates 221% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 21 away

0.86

creates per match

3.00

3.29

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Fagersta Södra IK

0.86

Stockholm Internazionale

3.00

allows per match

Fagersta Södra IK

3.29

Stockholm Internazionale

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fagersta Södra IK+0.00on par

Stockholm Internazionale+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fagersta Södra IK ↓

Stockholm Internazionale →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–28%

0–39%

0–47%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–28%

1–39%

1–47%

2

2–01%

2–13%

2–24%

2–34%

2–43%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (9%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Fagersta Södra IK or draw

21%

Fagersta Södra IK or Stockholm Internazionale

87%

Draw or Stockholm Internazionale

91%

Winning margin

Fagersta Södra IK wins by 2+

3%

Stockholm Internazionale wins by 2+

60%

Team goals

Fagersta Södra IK 1+ goals

62%

Fagersta Södra IK 2+ goals

26%

Fagersta Södra IK 3+ goals

8%

Stockholm Internazionale 1+ goals

96%

Stockholm Internazionale 2+ goals

81%

Stockholm Internazionale 3+ goals

59%

Draw no bet

Fagersta Södra IK (draw refunded)

10%

Stockholm Internazionale (draw refunded)

90%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fagersta Södra IK at home — creates 0.86, concedes 3.29 · 7 matches

Stockholm Internazionale away — creates 3.00, concedes 1.10 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fagersta Södra IK attack 0.86 + Stockholm Internazionale defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.98

Stockholm Internazionale attack 3.00 + Fagersta Södra IK defence 3.29 → ÷2 → 3.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Fagersta Södra IK scores more

9%

level

13%

Stockholm Internazionale scores more

79%

Stockholm Internazionale at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Stockholm Internazionale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff