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Fagersta Södra IK vs IFK Österåker — Division 2 - Norra Svealand 2019

Fagersta Södra IK
Fagersta Södra IK
FT
0 – 4
IFK Österåker
IFK Österåker
6/27/2020Division 2 - Norra SvealandDivision 2 - Norra Svealand · Norra Svealand - 2Onsjövallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Fagersta Södra IK20%
×Draw19%
IFK Österåker62%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fagersta Södra IK
1.33
IFK Österåker
2.45

IFK Österåker creates 84% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 72 away

creates per match

Fagersta Södra IK
0.86
IFK Österåker
1.61

allows per match

Fagersta Södra IK
3.29
IFK Österåker
1.81

finishing

Fagersta Södra IK+0.00on par
IFK Österåker+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fagersta Södra IK ↓

IFK Österåker →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–27%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Fagersta Södra IK or draw
38%
Fagersta Södra IK or IFK Österåker
81%
Draw or IFK Österåker
80%

Winning margin

Fagersta Södra IK wins by 2+
8%
IFK Österåker wins by 2+
40%

Team goals

Fagersta Södra IK 1+ goals
74%
Fagersta Södra IK 2+ goals
38%
Fagersta Södra IK 3+ goals
15%
IFK Österåker 1+ goals
91%
IFK Österåker 2+ goals
70%
IFK Österåker 3+ goals
44%

Draw no bet

Fagersta Södra IK (draw refunded)
24%
IFK Österåker (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fagersta Södra IK at home — creates 0.86, concedes 3.29 · 7 matches

IFK Österåker away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.81 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fagersta Södra IK attack 0.86 + IFK Österåker defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.33

IFK Österåker attack 1.61 + Fagersta Södra IK defence 3.29 → ÷2 → 2.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Fagersta Södra IK scores more
20%
level
19%
IFK Österåker scores more
62%

IFK Österåker at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "IFK Österåker will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fagersta Södra IK vs IFK Österåker

IFK Österåker beat Fagersta Södra IK 4-0 in Division 2 - Norra Svealand on June 27, 2020.

The match was played at Onsjövallen in Fagersta.