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Fafe vs Vilar de Perdizes — Taça de Portugal 2018

Fafe
Fafe
FT
5 – 1
HT: 4 – 1
Vilar de Perdizes
Vilar de Perdizes
11/22/2020Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 3rd RoundParque Municipal dos Desportos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Fafe75%
×Draw15%
Vilar de Perdizes10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fafe
2.60
Vilar de Perdizes
0.83

Fafe creates 213% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 3 away

creates per match

Fafe
2.20
Vilar de Perdizes
0.67

allows per match

Fafe
1.00
Vilar de Perdizes
3.00

finishing

Fafe+0.00on par
Vilar de Perdizes+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fafe ↓

Vilar de Perdizes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Fafe or draw
90%
Fafe or Vilar de Perdizes
85%
Draw or Vilar de Perdizes
25%

Winning margin

Fafe wins by 2+
53%
Vilar de Perdizes wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Fafe 1+ goals
92%
Fafe 2+ goals
73%
Fafe 3+ goals
47%
Vilar de Perdizes 1+ goals
56%
Vilar de Perdizes 2+ goals
20%
Vilar de Perdizes 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Fafe (draw refunded)
88%
Vilar de Perdizes (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fafe at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.00 · 10 matches

Vilar de Perdizes away — creates 0.67, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fafe attack 2.20 + Vilar de Perdizes defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.60

Vilar de Perdizes attack 0.67 + Fafe defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Fafe scores more
75%
level
15%
Vilar de Perdizes scores more
10%

Fafe at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Fafe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taça de Portugal: Fafe 5–1 Vilar de Perdizes

Fafe beat Vilar de Perdizes 5-1 in Taça de Portugal on November 22, 2020.

The match was played at Parque Municipal dos Desportos in Fafe.