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Fafe vs Pevidem — Liga 3 2021

Fafe
Fafe
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Pevidem
Pevidem
10/2/2021Liga 3Liga 3 · Round 5Parque Municipal dos Desportos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Fafe50%
×Draw26%
Pevidem24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fafe
1.48
Pevidem
0.93

Fafe creates 59% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 14 away

creates per match

Fafe
1.18
Pevidem
0.71

allows per match

Fafe
1.15
Pevidem
1.79

finishing

Fafe+0.00on par
Pevidem+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fafe ↓

Pevidem →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Fafe or draw
76%
Fafe or Pevidem
74%
Draw or Pevidem
50%

Winning margin

Fafe wins by 2+
25%
Pevidem wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Fafe 1+ goals
77%
Fafe 2+ goals
43%
Fafe 3+ goals
19%
Pevidem 1+ goals
61%
Pevidem 2+ goals
24%
Pevidem 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Fafe (draw refunded)
68%
Pevidem (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fafe at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.15 · 72 matches

Pevidem away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.79 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fafe attack 1.18 + Pevidem defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.48

Pevidem attack 0.71 + Fafe defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Fafe scores more
50%
level
26%
Pevidem scores more
24%

Fafe at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Fafe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga 3: Fafe 2–1 Pevidem

Fafe beat Pevidem 2-1 in Liga 3 on October 2, 2021.

The match was played at Parque Municipal dos Desportos in Fafe.