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Fafe vs Penafiel — Taça de Portugal 2018

Fafe
Fafe
Pens
0 – 0
Penafiel
Penafiel
10/21/2018Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 3rd RoundParque Municipal dos Desportos (Fafe)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Fafe39%
×Draw24%
Penafiel38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fafe
1.60
Penafiel
1.58

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 6 away

creates per match

Fafe
2.20
Penafiel
2.17

allows per match

Fafe
1.00
Penafiel
1.00

finishing

Fafe+0.00on par
Penafiel+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fafe ↓

Penafiel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Fafe or draw
62%
Fafe or Penafiel
76%
Draw or Penafiel
61%

Winning margin

Fafe wins by 2+
19%
Penafiel wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Fafe 1+ goals
80%
Fafe 2+ goals
47%
Fafe 3+ goals
22%
Penafiel 1+ goals
79%
Penafiel 2+ goals
47%
Penafiel 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Fafe (draw refunded)
51%
Penafiel (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fafe at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.00 · 10 matches

Penafiel away — creates 2.17, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fafe attack 2.20 + Penafiel defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.60

Penafiel attack 2.17 + Fafe defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Fafe scores more
39%
level
24%
Penafiel scores more
38%

Fafe at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Fafe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taça de Portugal: Fafe 0–0 Penafiel

Fafe and Penafiel drew 0-0 in Taça de Portugal on October 21, 2018.

The match was played at Parque Municipal dos Desportos (Fafe).