Fafe 1–2 Lusitânia Lourosa: Result & Stats | Liga 3

Fafe

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Lusitânia Lourosa

12/7/2024

Liga 3 · Round 13Parque Municipal dos Desportos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Fafe38%

×Draw29%

Lusitânia Lourosa33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FafeExpected goals in this matchLusitânia Lourosa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.08

Fafe

1.19

Lusitânia Lourosa

1.08

Fafe creates 10% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 46 away

1.18

creates per match

1.02

1.15

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Fafe

1.18

Lusitânia Lourosa

1.02

allows per match

Fafe

1.15

Lusitânia Lourosa

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fafe+0.00on par

Lusitânia Lourosa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fafe ↓

Lusitânia Lourosa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Fafe or draw

67%

Fafe or Lusitânia Lourosa

71%

Draw or Lusitânia Lourosa

62%

Winning margin

Fafe wins by 2+

16%

Lusitânia Lourosa wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Fafe 1+ goals

70%

Fafe 2+ goals

33%

Fafe 3+ goals

12%

Lusitânia Lourosa 1+ goals

66%

Lusitânia Lourosa 2+ goals

29%

Lusitânia Lourosa 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Fafe (draw refunded)

54%

Lusitânia Lourosa (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fafe at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.15 · 72 matches

Lusitânia Lourosa away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.20 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fafe attack 1.18 + Lusitânia Lourosa defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.19

Lusitânia Lourosa attack 1.02 + Fafe defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Fafe scores more

38%

level

29%

Lusitânia Lourosa scores more

33%

Fafe at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Fafe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff