Fafe 1–2 Felgueiras 1932: Result & Stats

Fafe

AET

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Felgueiras 1932

9/10/2023

Taça de Portugal · 1st RoundParque Municipal dos Desportos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Fafe38%

×Draw24%

Felgueiras 193238%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FafeExpected goals in this matchFelgueiras 1932

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

Fafe

1.50

Felgueiras 1932

1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 5 away

2.20

creates per match

2.00

1.00

allows per match

0.80

creates per match

Fafe

2.20

Felgueiras 1932

2.00

allows per match

Fafe

1.00

Felgueiras 1932

0.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fafe+0.00on par

Felgueiras 1932+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fafe ↓

Felgueiras 1932 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Fafe or draw

62%

Fafe or Felgueiras 1932

76%

Draw or Felgueiras 1932

62%

Winning margin

Fafe wins by 2+

18%

Felgueiras 1932 wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Fafe 1+ goals

78%

Fafe 2+ goals

44%

Fafe 3+ goals

19%

Felgueiras 1932 1+ goals

78%

Felgueiras 1932 2+ goals

44%

Felgueiras 1932 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Fafe (draw refunded)

50%

Felgueiras 1932 (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fafe at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.00 · 10 matches

Felgueiras 1932 away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fafe attack 2.20 + Felgueiras 1932 defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.50

Felgueiras 1932 attack 2.00 + Fafe defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Fafe scores more

38%

level

24%

Felgueiras 1932 scores more

38%

Fafe at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Fafe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff