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Fafe vs CF Os Belenenses — Liga 3 2021

Fafe
Fafe
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
CF Os Belenenses
CF Os Belenenses
3/9/2025Liga 3Liga 3 · Promotion Group - 5Parque Municipal dos Desportos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Fafe33%
×Draw27%
CF Os Belenenses40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fafe
1.17
CF Os Belenenses
1.30

CF Os Belenenses creates 11% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 47 away

creates per match

Fafe
1.18
CF Os Belenenses
1.45

allows per match

Fafe
1.15
CF Os Belenenses
1.15

finishing

Fafe+0.00on par
CF Os Belenenses+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fafe ↓

CF Os Belenenses →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Fafe or draw
60%
Fafe or CF Os Belenenses
73%
Draw or CF Os Belenenses
67%

Winning margin

Fafe wins by 2+
14%
CF Os Belenenses wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Fafe 1+ goals
69%
Fafe 2+ goals
33%
Fafe 3+ goals
11%
CF Os Belenenses 1+ goals
73%
CF Os Belenenses 2+ goals
37%
CF Os Belenenses 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Fafe (draw refunded)
46%
CF Os Belenenses (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fafe at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.15 · 72 matches

CF Os Belenenses away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.15 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fafe attack 1.18 + CF Os Belenenses defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.17

CF Os Belenenses attack 1.45 + Fafe defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Fafe scores more
33%
level
27%
CF Os Belenenses scores more
40%

CF Os Belenenses at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "CF Os Belenenses will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fafe vs CF Os Belenenses

CF Os Belenenses beat Fafe 1-0 in Liga 3 on March 9, 2025.

The match was played at Parque Municipal dos Desportos in Fafe.