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Fafe vs Arouca — Taça de Portugal 2018

Fafe
Fafeadvanced
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Arouca
Arouca
11/23/2025Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · Round of 32Parque Municipal dos Desportos de Fafe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Fafe36%
×Draw23%
Arouca41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fafe
1.64
Arouca
1.77

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 13 away

creates per match

Fafe
2.20
Arouca
2.54

allows per match

Fafe
1.00
Arouca
1.08

finishing

Fafe+0.00on par
Arouca+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fafe ↓

Arouca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Fafe or draw
59%
Fafe or Arouca
77%
Draw or Arouca
64%

Winning margin

Fafe wins by 2+
18%
Arouca wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Fafe 1+ goals
81%
Fafe 2+ goals
49%
Fafe 3+ goals
23%
Arouca 1+ goals
83%
Arouca 2+ goals
53%
Arouca 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Fafe (draw refunded)
47%
Arouca (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fafe at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.00 · 10 matches

Arouca away — creates 2.54, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fafe attack 2.20 + Arouca defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.64

Arouca attack 2.54 + Fafe defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Fafe scores more
36%
level
23%
Arouca scores more
41%

Arouca at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Arouca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taça de Portugal: Fafe 2–1 Arouca

Fafe beat Arouca 2-1 in Taça de Portugal on November 23, 2025.

The match was played at Parque Municipal dos Desportos de Fafe in Fafe.