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Fach-Donaufeld vs SV Horn — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Fach-Donaufeld
Fach-Donaufeld
CANC
16:00
SV Horn
SV Horn
1/24/2025Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Sportplatz Donaufeld

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Fach-Donaufeld36%
×Draw19%
SV Horn45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fach-Donaufeld
2.20
SV Horn
2.48

SV Horn creates 13% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 11 away

creates per match

Fach-Donaufeld
2.13
SV Horn
2.09

allows per match

Fach-Donaufeld
2.88
SV Horn
2.27

finishing

Fach-Donaufeld+0.00on par
SV Horn+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

81%Yes
  • Yes81
  • No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fach-Donaufeld ↓

SV Horn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–26%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
68%32%4.5
49%51%

Double chance

Fach-Donaufeld or draw
55%
Fach-Donaufeld or SV Horn
81%
Draw or SV Horn
64%

Winning margin

Fach-Donaufeld wins by 2+
20%
SV Horn wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Fach-Donaufeld 1+ goals
89%
Fach-Donaufeld 2+ goals
64%
Fach-Donaufeld 3+ goals
37%
SV Horn 1+ goals
92%
SV Horn 2+ goals
70%
SV Horn 3+ goals
44%

Draw no bet

Fach-Donaufeld (draw refunded)
44%
SV Horn (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
76%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fach-Donaufeld at home — creates 2.13, concedes 2.88 · 8 matches

SV Horn away — creates 2.09, concedes 2.27 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fach-Donaufeld attack 2.13 + SV Horn defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 2.20

SV Horn attack 2.09 + Fach-Donaufeld defence 2.88 → ÷2 → 2.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Fach-Donaufeld scores more
36%
level
19%
SV Horn scores more
45%

SV Horn at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "SV Horn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Fach-Donaufeld face SV Horn (Friendlies Clubs)

Friendlies Clubs returns with Fach-Donaufeld hosting SV Horn. Match starts January 24, 2025. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Fach-Donaufeld host SV Horn at Sportplatz Donaufeld.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.