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Fach-Donaufeld vs Post — Landesliga - Wien 2019

Fach-Donaufeld
Fach-Donaufeld
FT
6 – 2
Post
Post
4/23/2022Landesliga - WienLandesliga - Wien · Wien - 22Sportplatz Donaufeld

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Fach-Donaufeld72%
×Draw15%
Post12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fach-Donaufeld
2.83
Post
1.10

Fach-Donaufeld creates 157% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 43 away

creates per match

Fach-Donaufeld
2.87
Post
1.12

allows per match

Fach-Donaufeld
1.07
Post
2.79

finishing

Fach-Donaufeld+0.00on par
Post+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fach-Donaufeld ↓

Post →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Fach-Donaufeld or draw
88%
Fach-Donaufeld or Post
85%
Draw or Post
28%

Winning margin

Fach-Donaufeld wins by 2+
52%
Post wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Fach-Donaufeld 1+ goals
94%
Fach-Donaufeld 2+ goals
77%
Fach-Donaufeld 3+ goals
53%
Post 1+ goals
67%
Post 2+ goals
30%
Post 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Fach-Donaufeld (draw refunded)
86%
Post (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fach-Donaufeld at home — creates 2.87, concedes 1.07 · 30 matches

Post away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.79 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fach-Donaufeld attack 2.87 + Post defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.83

Post attack 1.12 + Fach-Donaufeld defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Fach-Donaufeld scores more
72%
level
15%
Post scores more
12%

Fach-Donaufeld at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Fach-Donaufeld will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Wien: Fach-Donaufeld 6–2 Post

Fach-Donaufeld beat Post 6-2 in Landesliga - Wien on April 23, 2022.

The match was played at Sportplatz Donaufeld in Wien.