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Fach-Donaufeld vs Oberwart / Rotenturm — Regionalliga - Ost 2018

Fach-Donaufeld
Fach-Donaufeld
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 2
Oberwart / Rotenturm
Oberwart / Rotenturm
9/9/2023Regionalliga - OstRegionalliga - Ost · Ost - 7Sportplatz Donaufeld

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Fach-Donaufeld44%
×Draw25%
Oberwart / Rotenturm32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fach-Donaufeld
1.59
Oberwart / Rotenturm
1.32

Fach-Donaufeld creates 20% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 15 away

creates per match

Fach-Donaufeld
2.05
Oberwart / Rotenturm
1.40

allows per match

Fach-Donaufeld
1.25
Oberwart / Rotenturm
1.13

finishing

Fach-Donaufeld+0.00on par
Oberwart / Rotenturm+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fach-Donaufeld ↓

Oberwart / Rotenturm →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Fach-Donaufeld or draw
68%
Fach-Donaufeld or Oberwart / Rotenturm
75%
Draw or Oberwart / Rotenturm
56%

Winning margin

Fach-Donaufeld wins by 2+
22%
Oberwart / Rotenturm wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Fach-Donaufeld 1+ goals
80%
Fach-Donaufeld 2+ goals
47%
Fach-Donaufeld 3+ goals
21%
Oberwart / Rotenturm 1+ goals
73%
Oberwart / Rotenturm 2+ goals
38%
Oberwart / Rotenturm 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Fach-Donaufeld (draw refunded)
58%
Oberwart / Rotenturm (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fach-Donaufeld at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.25 · 61 matches

Oberwart / Rotenturm away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fach-Donaufeld attack 2.05 + Oberwart / Rotenturm defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.59

Oberwart / Rotenturm attack 1.40 + Fach-Donaufeld defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Fach-Donaufeld scores more
44%
level
25%
Oberwart / Rotenturm scores more
32%

Fach-Donaufeld at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Fach-Donaufeld will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fach-Donaufeld vs Oberwart / Rotenturm

Oberwart / Rotenturm beat Fach-Donaufeld 3-2 in Regionalliga - Ost on September 9, 2023.

The match was played at Sportplatz Donaufeld in Wien.