Fach-Donaufeld 3–1 Leobendorf: Result & Stats

Fach-Donaufeld

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Leobendorf

M. Holzer 89'

L. Lux 71'

F. van Zaanen 45+1'

A. Svoboda 50'

4/21/2025

Regionalliga - Ost · Ost - 20Sportplatz Donaufeld

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Fach-Donaufeld47%

×Draw24%

Leobendorf29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fach-DonaufeldExpected goals in this matchLeobendorf

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

1.31

Fach-Donaufeld

1.72

Leobendorf

1.31

Fach-Donaufeld creates 31% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 101 away

2.05

creates per match

1.36

1.25

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Fach-Donaufeld

2.05

Leobendorf

1.36

allows per match

Fach-Donaufeld

1.25

Leobendorf

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fach-Donaufeld+0.00on par

Leobendorf+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fach-Donaufeld ↓

Leobendorf →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Fach-Donaufeld or draw

71%

Fach-Donaufeld or Leobendorf

76%

Draw or Leobendorf

53%

Winning margin

Fach-Donaufeld wins by 2+

25%

Leobendorf wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Fach-Donaufeld 1+ goals

82%

Fach-Donaufeld 2+ goals

51%

Fach-Donaufeld 3+ goals

25%

Leobendorf 1+ goals

73%

Leobendorf 2+ goals

38%

Leobendorf 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Fach-Donaufeld (draw refunded)

62%

Leobendorf (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fach-Donaufeld at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.25 · 61 matches

Leobendorf away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.40 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fach-Donaufeld attack 2.05 + Leobendorf defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.72

Leobendorf attack 1.36 + Fach-Donaufeld defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Fach-Donaufeld scores more

47%

level

24%

Leobendorf scores more

29%

Fach-Donaufeld at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Fach-Donaufeld will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+1'

F. van Zaanen

46'

S. Viertl← M. Botic

50'

A. Svoboda

61'

M. Scherzadeh← A. Babić

71'

L. Lux

73'

L. Mirkovic← M. Lechner

75'

M. Hofer← R. Bencun

77'

L. Schöfl← L. Lux

83'

M. Mandl← F. van Zaanen

86'

A. Cvetkovic← S. Viertl

89'

M. Holzer

Fach-Donaufeld

Leobendorf

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Zaanen

▼

Babić

⚽

▼

Lux

⚽

Holzer

Gerstl

Manager: J. Michorl

61'▲M. Scherzadeh←▼A. Babić

77'▲L. Schöfl←▼L. Lux

83'▲M. Mandl←▼F. van Zaanen

Fach-Donaufeld substitutes

ScherzadehSchöflMandlMuheljicHabetlerApollonio

Manager: L. Fürhauser

46'▲S. Viertl←▼M. Botic

73'▲L. Mirkovic←▼M. Lechner

75'▲M. Hofer←▼R. Bencun

86'▲A. Cvetkovic←▼S. Viertl

Leobendorf substitutes

ViertlMirkovicHoferCvetkovicBarutSulek

Match Recap: Fach-Donaufeld vs Leobendorf

Fach-Donaufeld beat Leobendorf 3-1 in Regionalliga - Ost on April 21, 2025.

Goals: F. van Zaanen (45+1'), A. Svoboda (50'), L. Lux (71'), M. Holzer (89').

The match was played at Sportplatz Donaufeld in Wien.

Fach-Donaufeld vs Leobendorf — Regionalliga - Ost 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Fach-Donaufeld vs Leobendorf