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Fach-Donaufeld vs Krems — Regionalliga - Ost 2018

Fach-Donaufeld
Fach-Donaufeld
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Krems
Krems
4/13/2024Regionalliga - OstRegionalliga - Ost · Ost - 23Sportplatz Donaufeld

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Fach-Donaufeld51%
×Draw23%
Krems26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fach-Donaufeld
1.85
Krems
1.27

Fach-Donaufeld creates 46% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 32 away

creates per match

Fach-Donaufeld
2.05
Krems
1.28

allows per match

Fach-Donaufeld
1.25
Krems
1.66

finishing

Fach-Donaufeld+0.00on par
Krems+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fach-Donaufeld ↓

Krems →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Fach-Donaufeld or draw
74%
Fach-Donaufeld or Krems
77%
Draw or Krems
49%

Winning margin

Fach-Donaufeld wins by 2+
28%
Krems wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Fach-Donaufeld 1+ goals
84%
Fach-Donaufeld 2+ goals
55%
Fach-Donaufeld 3+ goals
28%
Krems 1+ goals
72%
Krems 2+ goals
36%
Krems 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Fach-Donaufeld (draw refunded)
66%
Krems (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fach-Donaufeld at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.25 · 61 matches

Krems away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.66 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fach-Donaufeld attack 2.05 + Krems defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.85

Krems attack 1.28 + Fach-Donaufeld defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Fach-Donaufeld scores more
51%
level
23%
Krems scores more
26%

Fach-Donaufeld at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Fach-Donaufeld will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fach-Donaufeld vs Krems

Fach-Donaufeld and Krems drew 1-1 in Regionalliga - Ost on April 13, 2024.

The match was played at Sportplatz Donaufeld in Wien.