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Fach-Donaufeld vs Gloggnitz — Regionalliga - Ost 2018

Fach-Donaufeld
Fach-Donaufeld
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 3
Gloggnitz
Gloggnitz
10/19/2024Regionalliga - OstRegionalliga - Ost · Ost - 12Sportplatz Donaufeld

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Fach-Donaufeld51%
×Draw21%
Gloggnitz28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fach-Donaufeld
2.08
Gloggnitz
1.50

Fach-Donaufeld creates 39% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 31 away

creates per match

Fach-Donaufeld
2.05
Gloggnitz
1.74

allows per match

Fach-Donaufeld
1.25
Gloggnitz
2.10

finishing

Fach-Donaufeld+0.00on par
Gloggnitz+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fach-Donaufeld ↓

Gloggnitz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Fach-Donaufeld or draw
72%
Fach-Donaufeld or Gloggnitz
79%
Draw or Gloggnitz
49%

Winning margin

Fach-Donaufeld wins by 2+
30%
Gloggnitz wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Fach-Donaufeld 1+ goals
87%
Fach-Donaufeld 2+ goals
61%
Fach-Donaufeld 3+ goals
34%
Gloggnitz 1+ goals
78%
Gloggnitz 2+ goals
44%
Gloggnitz 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Fach-Donaufeld (draw refunded)
65%
Gloggnitz (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fach-Donaufeld at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.25 · 61 matches

Gloggnitz away — creates 1.74, concedes 2.10 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fach-Donaufeld attack 2.05 + Gloggnitz defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 2.08

Gloggnitz attack 1.74 + Fach-Donaufeld defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Fach-Donaufeld scores more
51%
level
21%
Gloggnitz scores more
28%

Fach-Donaufeld at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Fach-Donaufeld will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fach-Donaufeld vs Gloggnitz

Gloggnitz beat Fach-Donaufeld 3-2 in Regionalliga - Ost on October 19, 2024.

The match was played at Sportplatz Donaufeld in Wien.