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Fach-Donaufeld vs Elektra — Landesliga - Wien 2019

Fach-Donaufeld
Fach-Donaufeld
FT
1 – 1
Elektra
Elektra
9/8/2020Landesliga - WienLandesliga - Wien · Wien - 2Sportplatz Donaufeld

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Fach-Donaufeld49%
×Draw22%
Elektra29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fach-Donaufeld
1.90
Elektra
1.42

Fach-Donaufeld creates 34% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 13 away

creates per match

Fach-Donaufeld
2.87
Elektra
1.77

allows per match

Fach-Donaufeld
1.07
Elektra
0.92

finishing

Fach-Donaufeld+0.00on par
Elektra+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fach-Donaufeld ↓

Elektra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Fach-Donaufeld or draw
71%
Fach-Donaufeld or Elektra
78%
Draw or Elektra
51%

Winning margin

Fach-Donaufeld wins by 2+
27%
Elektra wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Fach-Donaufeld 1+ goals
85%
Fach-Donaufeld 2+ goals
56%
Fach-Donaufeld 3+ goals
29%
Elektra 1+ goals
76%
Elektra 2+ goals
41%
Elektra 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Fach-Donaufeld (draw refunded)
63%
Elektra (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fach-Donaufeld at home — creates 2.87, concedes 1.07 · 30 matches

Elektra away — creates 1.77, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fach-Donaufeld attack 2.87 + Elektra defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.90

Elektra attack 1.77 + Fach-Donaufeld defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Fach-Donaufeld scores more
49%
level
22%
Elektra scores more
29%

Fach-Donaufeld at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Fach-Donaufeld will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fach-Donaufeld vs Elektra

Fach-Donaufeld and Elektra drew 1-1 in Landesliga - Wien on September 8, 2020.

The match was played at Sportplatz Donaufeld in Wien.