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Fach-Donaufeld vs ASV 13 — Landesliga - Wien 2019

Fach-Donaufeld
Fach-Donaufeld
CANC
21:00
ASV 13
ASV 13
5/24/2020Landesliga - WienLandesliga - Wien · Wien - 27Sportplatz Donaufeld

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Fach-Donaufeld72%
×Draw15%
ASV 1313%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fach-Donaufeld
2.92
ASV 13
1.16

Fach-Donaufeld creates 152% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 59 away

creates per match

Fach-Donaufeld
2.87
ASV 13
1.25

allows per match

Fach-Donaufeld
1.07
ASV 13
2.98

finishing

Fach-Donaufeld+0.00on par
ASV 13+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fach-Donaufeld ↓

ASV 13 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Fach-Donaufeld or draw
87%
Fach-Donaufeld or ASV 13
85%
Draw or ASV 13
28%

Winning margin

Fach-Donaufeld wins by 2+
52%
ASV 13 wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Fach-Donaufeld 1+ goals
94%
Fach-Donaufeld 2+ goals
78%
Fach-Donaufeld 3+ goals
55%
ASV 13 1+ goals
69%
ASV 13 2+ goals
32%
ASV 13 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Fach-Donaufeld (draw refunded)
85%
ASV 13 (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fach-Donaufeld at home — creates 2.87, concedes 1.07 · 30 matches

ASV 13 away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.98 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fach-Donaufeld attack 2.87 + ASV 13 defence 2.98 → ÷2 → 2.92

ASV 13 attack 1.25 + Fach-Donaufeld defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Fach-Donaufeld scores more
72%
level
15%
ASV 13 scores more
13%

Fach-Donaufeld at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Fach-Donaufeld will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Fach-Donaufeld host ASV 13

May 24, 2020: Fach-Donaufeld take on ASV 13 in Landesliga - Wien. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Fach-Donaufeld host ASV 13 at Sportplatz Donaufeld.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.