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Fabril Barreiro vs Rabo Peixe — Taça de Portugal 2018

Fabril Barreiro
Fabril Barreiro
FT
2 – 0
Rabo Peixe
Rabo Peixe
9/27/2020Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 1st RoundEstádio Alfredo da Silva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Fabril Barreiro56%
×Draw20%
Rabo Peixe24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fabril Barreiro
2.23
Rabo Peixe
1.40

Fabril Barreiro creates 59% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

Fabril Barreiro
1.20
Rabo Peixe
0.00

allows per match

Fabril Barreiro
2.80
Rabo Peixe
3.25

finishing

Fabril Barreiro+0.00on par
Rabo Peixe+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fabril Barreiro ↓

Rabo Peixe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Fabril Barreiro or draw
76%
Fabril Barreiro or Rabo Peixe
80%
Draw or Rabo Peixe
44%

Winning margin

Fabril Barreiro wins by 2+
34%
Rabo Peixe wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Fabril Barreiro 1+ goals
89%
Fabril Barreiro 2+ goals
65%
Fabril Barreiro 3+ goals
38%
Rabo Peixe 1+ goals
75%
Rabo Peixe 2+ goals
41%
Rabo Peixe 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Fabril Barreiro (draw refunded)
70%
Rabo Peixe (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fabril Barreiro at home — creates 1.20, concedes 2.80 · 5 matches

Rabo Peixe away — creates 0.00, concedes 3.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fabril Barreiro attack 1.20 + Rabo Peixe defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.23

Rabo Peixe attack 0.00 + Fabril Barreiro defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Fabril Barreiro scores more
56%
level
20%
Rabo Peixe scores more
24%

Fabril Barreiro at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Fabril Barreiro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taça de Portugal: Fabril Barreiro 2–0 Rabo Peixe

Fabril Barreiro beat Rabo Peixe 2-0 in Taça de Portugal on September 27, 2020.

The match was played at Estádio Alfredo da Silva in Barreiro.