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Fabril Barreiro vs Oriental Lisboa — Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group G 2020

Fabril Barreiro
Fabril Barreiro
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Oriental Lisboa
Oriental Lisboa
10/4/2020Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group GCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group G · Group G - 2Estádio Alfredo da Silva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Fabril Barreiro36%
×Draw30%
Oriental Lisboa34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fabril Barreiro
1.09
Oriental Lisboa
1.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

creates per match

Fabril Barreiro
0.82
Oriental Lisboa
0.82

allows per match

Fabril Barreiro
1.27
Oriental Lisboa
1.36

finishing

Fabril Barreiro+0.00on par
Oriental Lisboa+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fabril Barreiro ↓

Oriental Lisboa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Fabril Barreiro or draw
66%
Fabril Barreiro or Oriental Lisboa
70%
Draw or Oriental Lisboa
64%

Winning margin

Fabril Barreiro wins by 2+
15%
Oriental Lisboa wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Fabril Barreiro 1+ goals
66%
Fabril Barreiro 2+ goals
30%
Fabril Barreiro 3+ goals
10%
Oriental Lisboa 1+ goals
65%
Oriental Lisboa 2+ goals
28%
Oriental Lisboa 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Fabril Barreiro (draw refunded)
52%
Oriental Lisboa (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fabril Barreiro at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

Oriental Lisboa away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fabril Barreiro attack 0.82 + Oriental Lisboa defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.09

Oriental Lisboa attack 0.82 + Fabril Barreiro defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Fabril Barreiro scores more
36%
level
30%
Oriental Lisboa scores more
34%

Fabril Barreiro at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Fabril Barreiro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fabril Barreiro vs Oriental Lisboa

Fabril Barreiro and Oriental Lisboa drew 2-2 in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group G on October 4, 2020.

The match was played at Estádio Alfredo da Silva in Barreiro.