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Fabril Barreiro vs Moreirense — Taça de Portugal 2018

Fabril Barreiro
Fabril Barreiro
FT
1 – 3
Moreirense
Moreirense
10/19/2019Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 3rd RoundEstádio Alfredo da Silva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Fabril Barreiro22%
×Draw20%
Moreirense58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fabril Barreiro
1.27
Moreirense
2.19

Moreirense creates 72% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 12 away

creates per match

Fabril Barreiro
1.20
Moreirense
1.58

allows per match

Fabril Barreiro
2.80
Moreirense
1.33

finishing

Fabril Barreiro+0.00on par
Moreirense+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fabril Barreiro ↓

Moreirense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Fabril Barreiro or draw
42%
Fabril Barreiro or Moreirense
80%
Draw or Moreirense
78%

Winning margin

Fabril Barreiro wins by 2+
9%
Moreirense wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Fabril Barreiro 1+ goals
72%
Fabril Barreiro 2+ goals
36%
Fabril Barreiro 3+ goals
14%
Moreirense 1+ goals
89%
Moreirense 2+ goals
64%
Moreirense 3+ goals
37%

Draw no bet

Fabril Barreiro (draw refunded)
27%
Moreirense (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fabril Barreiro at home — creates 1.20, concedes 2.80 · 5 matches

Moreirense away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.33 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fabril Barreiro attack 1.20 + Moreirense defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.27

Moreirense attack 1.58 + Fabril Barreiro defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 2.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Fabril Barreiro scores more
22%
level
20%
Moreirense scores more
58%

Moreirense at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Moreirense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taça de Portugal: Fabril Barreiro 1–3 Moreirense

Moreirense beat Fabril Barreiro 3-1 in Taça de Portugal on October 19, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio Alfredo da Silva in Barreiro.