Fabril Barreiro 1–3 Maritimo: Result & Stats

Fabril Barreiro

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Maritimo

9/23/2023

Taça de Portugal · 2nd RoundEstádio Alfredo da Silva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Fabril Barreiro19%

×Draw19%

Maritimo62%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fabril BarreiroExpected goals in this matchMaritimo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

2.40

Fabril Barreiro

1.27

Maritimo

2.40

Maritimo creates 89% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

1.20

creates per match

2.00

2.80

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Fabril Barreiro

1.20

Maritimo

2.00

allows per match

Fabril Barreiro

2.80

Maritimo

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fabril Barreiro+0.00on par

Maritimo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fabril Barreiro ↓

Maritimo →

0–03%

0–16%

0–27%

0–36%

0–44%

1–03%

1–18%

1–29%

1–38%

1–45%

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Fabril Barreiro or draw

38%

Fabril Barreiro or Maritimo

81%

Draw or Maritimo

81%

Winning margin

Fabril Barreiro wins by 2+

Maritimo wins by 2+

40%

Team goals

Fabril Barreiro 1+ goals

72%

Fabril Barreiro 2+ goals

36%

Fabril Barreiro 3+ goals

14%

Maritimo 1+ goals

91%

Maritimo 2+ goals

69%

Maritimo 3+ goals

42%

Draw no bet

Fabril Barreiro (draw refunded)

24%

Maritimo (draw refunded)

76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Fabril Barreiro at home — creates 1.20, concedes 2.80 · 5 matches

Maritimo away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Fabril Barreiro attack 1.20 + Maritimo defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.27

Maritimo attack 2.00 + Fabril Barreiro defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 2.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 62%?"

Fabril Barreiro scores more

19%

level

19%

Maritimo scores more

62%

Maritimo at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Maritimo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff