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Fabril Barreiro vs Ideal — Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group G 2020

Fabril Barreiro
Fabril Barreiro
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Ideal
Ideal
2/3/2021Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group GCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group G · Group G - 11Estádio Alfredo da Silva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Fabril Barreiro44%
×Draw26%
Ideal30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fabril Barreiro
1.45
Ideal
1.14

Fabril Barreiro creates 27% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

creates per match

Fabril Barreiro
0.82
Ideal
1.00

allows per match

Fabril Barreiro
1.27
Ideal
2.09

finishing

Fabril Barreiro+0.00on par
Ideal+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fabril Barreiro ↓

Ideal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Fabril Barreiro or draw
70%
Fabril Barreiro or Ideal
74%
Draw or Ideal
56%

Winning margin

Fabril Barreiro wins by 2+
21%
Ideal wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Fabril Barreiro 1+ goals
77%
Fabril Barreiro 2+ goals
42%
Fabril Barreiro 3+ goals
18%
Ideal 1+ goals
68%
Ideal 2+ goals
32%
Ideal 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Fabril Barreiro (draw refunded)
60%
Ideal (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fabril Barreiro at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

Ideal away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.09 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fabril Barreiro attack 0.82 + Ideal defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.45

Ideal attack 1.00 + Fabril Barreiro defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Fabril Barreiro scores more
44%
level
26%
Ideal scores more
30%

Fabril Barreiro at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Fabril Barreiro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fabril Barreiro vs Ideal

Fabril Barreiro beat Ideal 1-0 in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group G on February 3, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Alfredo da Silva in Barreiro.