Fabril Barreiro 0–2 FC Porto: Result & Stats

Fabril Barreiro

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

FC Porto

11/21/2020

Taça de Portugal · 3rd RoundEstádio Alfredo da Silva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Fabril Barreiro9%

×Draw15%

FC Porto76%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fabril BarreiroExpected goals in this matchFC Porto

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.83

2.67

Fabril Barreiro

0.83

FC Porto

2.67

FC Porto creates 222% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 24 away

1.20

creates per match

2.54

2.80

allows per match

0.46

creates per match

Fabril Barreiro

1.20

FC Porto

2.54

allows per match

Fabril Barreiro

2.80

FC Porto

0.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fabril Barreiro+0.00on par

FC Porto+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fabril Barreiro ↓

FC Porto →

0–03%

0–18%

0–211%

0–310%

0–47%

1–03%

1–17%

1–29%

1–38%

1–45%

2–01%

2–13%

2–24%

2–33%

2–42%

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–41%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Fabril Barreiro or draw

24%

Fabril Barreiro or FC Porto

85%

Draw or FC Porto

91%

Winning margin

Fabril Barreiro wins by 2+

FC Porto wins by 2+

54%

Team goals

Fabril Barreiro 1+ goals

56%

Fabril Barreiro 2+ goals

20%

Fabril Barreiro 3+ goals

FC Porto 1+ goals

93%

FC Porto 2+ goals

74%

FC Porto 3+ goals

49%

Draw no bet

Fabril Barreiro (draw refunded)

11%

FC Porto (draw refunded)

89%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Fabril Barreiro at home — creates 1.20, concedes 2.80 · 5 matches

FC Porto away — creates 2.54, concedes 0.46 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Fabril Barreiro attack 1.20 + FC Porto defence 0.46 → ÷2 → 0.83

FC Porto attack 2.54 + Fabril Barreiro defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 2.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 76%?"

Fabril Barreiro scores more

level

15%

FC Porto scores more

76%

FC Porto at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "FC Porto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff