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Fabril Barreiro vs Estrela — Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group G 2020

Fabril Barreiro
Fabril Barreiro
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Estrela
Estrela
4/3/2021Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group GCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group G · Group G - 21Estádio Alfredo da Silva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Fabril Barreiro23%
×Draw30%
Estrela47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fabril Barreiro
0.77
Estrela
1.23

Estrela creates 60% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

creates per match

Fabril Barreiro
0.82
Estrela
1.18

allows per match

Fabril Barreiro
1.27
Estrela
0.73

finishing

Fabril Barreiro+0.00on par
Estrela+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fabril Barreiro ↓

Estrela →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–117%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Fabril Barreiro or draw
53%
Fabril Barreiro or Estrela
70%
Draw or Estrela
77%

Winning margin

Fabril Barreiro wins by 2+
7%
Estrela wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Fabril Barreiro 1+ goals
54%
Fabril Barreiro 2+ goals
18%
Fabril Barreiro 3+ goals
4%
Estrela 1+ goals
71%
Estrela 2+ goals
35%
Estrela 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Fabril Barreiro (draw refunded)
33%
Estrela (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fabril Barreiro at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

Estrela away — creates 1.18, concedes 0.73 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fabril Barreiro attack 0.82 + Estrela defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.77

Estrela attack 1.18 + Fabril Barreiro defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Fabril Barreiro scores more
23%
level
30%
Estrela scores more
47%

Estrela at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Estrela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fabril Barreiro vs Estrela

Estrela beat Fabril Barreiro 2-1 in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group G on April 3, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Alfredo da Silva in Barreiro.