Fabril Barreiro 1–1 Belenenses II: Result & Stats

Fabril Barreiro

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Belenenses II

2/16/2021

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group G · Group G - 16Estádio Alfredo da Silva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Fabril Barreiro37%

×Draw30%

Belenenses II33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fabril BarreiroExpected goals in this matchBelenenses II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.00

Fabril Barreiro

1.09

Belenenses II

1.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

0.82

creates per match

0.73

1.27

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Fabril Barreiro

0.82

Belenenses II

0.73

allows per match

Fabril Barreiro

1.27

Belenenses II

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fabril Barreiro+0.00on par

Belenenses II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fabril Barreiro ↓

Belenenses II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Fabril Barreiro or draw

67%

Fabril Barreiro or Belenenses II

70%

Draw or Belenenses II

63%

Winning margin

Fabril Barreiro wins by 2+

15%

Belenenses II wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Fabril Barreiro 1+ goals

66%

Fabril Barreiro 2+ goals

30%

Fabril Barreiro 3+ goals

10%

Belenenses II 1+ goals

63%

Belenenses II 2+ goals

26%

Belenenses II 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Fabril Barreiro (draw refunded)

53%

Belenenses II (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fabril Barreiro at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

Belenenses II away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fabril Barreiro attack 0.82 + Belenenses II defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.09

Belenenses II attack 0.73 + Fabril Barreiro defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Fabril Barreiro scores more

37%

level

30%

Belenenses II scores more

33%

Fabril Barreiro at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Fabril Barreiro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff