Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Fabril Barreiro vs Academico Viseu — Taça de Portugal 2018

Fabril Barreiro
Fabril Barreiro
FT
2 – 6
HT: 2 – 4
Academico Viseu
Academico Viseu
10/2/2022Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 2nd RoundEstádio Alfredo da Silva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Fabril Barreiro16%
×Draw18%
Academico Viseu65%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fabril Barreiro
1.15
Academico Viseu
2.45

Academico Viseu creates 113% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 10 away

creates per match

Fabril Barreiro
1.20
Academico Viseu
2.10

allows per match

Fabril Barreiro
2.80
Academico Viseu
1.10

finishing

Fabril Barreiro+0.00on par
Academico Viseu+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fabril Barreiro ↓

Academico Viseu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–28%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Fabril Barreiro or draw
35%
Fabril Barreiro or Academico Viseu
82%
Draw or Academico Viseu
84%

Winning margin

Fabril Barreiro wins by 2+
6%
Academico Viseu wins by 2+
43%

Team goals

Fabril Barreiro 1+ goals
68%
Fabril Barreiro 2+ goals
32%
Fabril Barreiro 3+ goals
11%
Academico Viseu 1+ goals
91%
Academico Viseu 2+ goals
70%
Academico Viseu 3+ goals
44%

Draw no bet

Fabril Barreiro (draw refunded)
20%
Academico Viseu (draw refunded)
80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fabril Barreiro at home — creates 1.20, concedes 2.80 · 5 matches

Academico Viseu away — creates 2.10, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fabril Barreiro attack 1.20 + Academico Viseu defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.15

Academico Viseu attack 2.10 + Fabril Barreiro defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 2.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Fabril Barreiro scores more
16%
level
18%
Academico Viseu scores more
65%

Academico Viseu at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Academico Viseu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fabril Barreiro vs Academico Viseu

Academico Viseu beat Fabril Barreiro 6-2 in Taça de Portugal on October 2, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Alfredo da Silva in Barreiro.