Fabrègues 1–4 Trélissac: Result & Stats

Fabrègues

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 0

Trélissac

T. Pastorel 27'

J. Pothier 90+2'

J. Romil 84', 78' (pen)

A. Diakité 70'

1/6/2024

Coupe de France · Round of 64Stade Joseph Jeanton

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Fabrègues26%

×Draw23%

Trélissac51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FabrèguesExpected goals in this matchTrélissac

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.81

Fabrègues

1.23

Trélissac

1.81

Trélissac creates 47% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

1.67

creates per match

1.80

1.83

allows per match

0.80

creates per match

Fabrègues

1.67

Trélissac

1.80

allows per match

Fabrègues

1.83

Trélissac

0.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fabrègues+0.00on par

Trélissac+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fabrègues ↓

Trélissac →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Fabrègues or draw

49%

Fabrègues or Trélissac

77%

Draw or Trélissac

74%

Winning margin

Fabrègues wins by 2+

11%

Trélissac wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Fabrègues 1+ goals

71%

Fabrègues 2+ goals

35%

Fabrègues 3+ goals

13%

Trélissac 1+ goals

84%

Trélissac 2+ goals

54%

Trélissac 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Fabrègues (draw refunded)

34%

Trélissac (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fabrègues at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

Trélissac away — creates 1.80, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fabrègues attack 1.67 + Trélissac defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.23

Trélissac attack 1.80 + Fabrègues defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Fabrègues scores more

26%

level

23%

Trélissac scores more

51%

Trélissac at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Trélissac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

S. Bouchite

15'

D. Rico

17'

Y. Leriche← D. Gassama

27'

T. Pastorel

31'

B. Bisson

57'

J. Torregrossa← A. Cheranti

58'

L. Aka← V. Michau

58'

M. Gadji← B. Bisson

58'

N. Nana Gassa Gonga← J. Grain

70'

A. Diakité↳ D. Samba

71'

A. Naili← Q. Leroux

77'

M. Ouabi

78'

J. RomilPenalty

84'

M. Zaghar

84'

J. Romil↳ L. N'Kulu

87'

J. Pothier← A. Diakité

88'

E. Caumet← F. Meschel

88'

M. Drizi← T. Pastorel

90+2'

J. Pothier↳ L. N'Kulu

Possession

Shots

Statistics

FabrèguesTrélissac

Overview

40%Possession60%

5Total Shots14

4Corners5

10Fouls15

Shots

5Total Shots14

2On Target5

3Off Target6

Passing

40%Possession60%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

10Fouls15

3Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0