Fabrègues 0–2 Paris FC: Result & Stats

Fabrègues

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Paris FC

Mohamed Lamine Diaby 90'

Romain Armand 17'

1/4/2020

Coupe de France · 32nd FinalsStade Joseph Jeanton

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Fabrègues27%

×Draw23%

Paris FC50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FabrèguesExpected goals in this matchParis FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.76

Fabrègues

1.24

Paris FC

1.76

Paris FC creates 42% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 16 away

1.67

creates per match

1.69

1.83

allows per match

0.81

creates per match

Fabrègues

1.67

Paris FC

1.69

allows per match

Fabrègues

1.83

Paris FC

0.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fabrègues+0.00on par

Paris FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fabrègues ↓

Paris FC →

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–42%

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–42%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Fabrègues or draw

50%

Fabrègues or Paris FC

77%

Draw or Paris FC

73%

Winning margin

Fabrègues wins by 2+

11%

Paris FC wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Fabrègues 1+ goals

71%

Fabrègues 2+ goals

35%

Fabrègues 3+ goals

13%

Paris FC 1+ goals

83%

Paris FC 2+ goals

52%

Paris FC 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Fabrègues (draw refunded)

35%

Paris FC (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Fabrègues at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

Paris FC away — creates 1.69, concedes 0.81 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Fabrègues attack 1.67 + Paris FC defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.24

Paris FC attack 1.69 + Fabrègues defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

Fabrègues scores more

27%

level

23%

Paris FC scores more

50%

Paris FC at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Paris FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

17'

58'

66'

70'

79'

79'

90'

Fabrègues

Paris

⚽

Manager: L. Scala

Fabrègues substitutes

OuabiNichelePersonneFranchHerimanjakaryvoMeslouhi

Manager: S. Gilli

Paris FC substitutes

DiabySarrMatougMaisonnialHugonetKikondaMara

Coupe de France: Fabrègues 0–2 Paris FC

Paris FC beat Fabrègues 2-0 in Coupe de France on January 4, 2020.

Goals: Romain Armand (17'), Mohamed Lamine Diaby (90').

The match was played at Stade Joseph Jeanton in Fabregues.

Fabrègues vs Paris FC — Coupe de France 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Coupe de France: Fabrègues 0–2 Paris FC