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FA Šiauliai II vs Panevėžys II — 1 Lyga 2026

FA Šiauliai II
FA Šiauliai II
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Panevėžys II
Panevėžys II
R. Kulbis 78'
10/11/20241 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 26Šiaulių Gytarių stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

FA Šiauliai II40%
×Draw22%
Panevėžys II37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FA Šiauliai II
1.78
Panevėžys II
1.71

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 81 away

creates per match

FA Šiauliai II
1.38
Panevėžys II
1.47

allows per match

FA Šiauliai II
1.96
Panevėžys II
2.19

finishing

FA Šiauliai II+0.00on par
Panevėžys II+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FA Šiauliai II ↓

Panevėžys II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

FA Šiauliai II or draw
63%
FA Šiauliai II or Panevėžys II
78%
Draw or Panevėžys II
60%

Winning margin

FA Šiauliai II wins by 2+
21%
Panevėžys II wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

FA Šiauliai II 1+ goals
83%
FA Šiauliai II 2+ goals
53%
FA Šiauliai II 3+ goals
26%
Panevėžys II 1+ goals
82%
Panevėžys II 2+ goals
51%
Panevėžys II 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

FA Šiauliai II (draw refunded)
52%
Panevėžys II (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FA Šiauliai II at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.96 · 68 matches

Panevėžys II away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.19 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FA Šiauliai II attack 1.38 + Panevėžys II defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.78

Panevėžys II attack 1.47 + FA Šiauliai II defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

FA Šiauliai II scores more
40%
level
22%
Panevėžys II scores more
37%

FA Šiauliai II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "FA Šiauliai II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

52'
G. Micevicius
54'
A. Karvatskyi
63'
N. Petkevicius
69'
A. Trakselis← M. Pusnys
73'
A. Jusys
75'
R. Kulbis← R. Kulbis
78'
R. Kulbis
80'
D. Balsys← D. Balsys
82'
N. Petkevicius← G. Dudenas

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1 Lyga: FA Šiauliai II 0–1 Panevėžys II

Panevėžys II beat FA Šiauliai II 1-0 in 1 Lyga on October 11, 2024.

Goals: R. Kulbis (78').

The match was played at Šiaulių Gytarių stadionas in Šiauliai.