Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

FA Šiauliai II vs BFA — 1 Lyga 2026

FA Šiauliai II
FA Šiauliai II
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
BFA
BFA
11/5/20231 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 29Šiaulių Gytarių stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

FA Šiauliai II40%
×Draw23%
BFA37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FA Šiauliai II
1.71
BFA
1.65

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 104 away

creates per match

FA Šiauliai II
1.38
BFA
1.34

allows per match

FA Šiauliai II
1.96
BFA
2.05

finishing

FA Šiauliai II+0.00on par
BFA+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FA Šiauliai II ↓

BFA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

FA Šiauliai II or draw
63%
FA Šiauliai II or BFA
77%
Draw or BFA
60%

Winning margin

FA Šiauliai II wins by 2+
20%
BFA wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

FA Šiauliai II 1+ goals
82%
FA Šiauliai II 2+ goals
51%
FA Šiauliai II 3+ goals
24%
BFA 1+ goals
81%
BFA 2+ goals
49%
BFA 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

FA Šiauliai II (draw refunded)
52%
BFA (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FA Šiauliai II at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.96 · 68 matches

BFA away — creates 1.34, concedes 2.05 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FA Šiauliai II attack 1.38 + BFA defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.71

BFA attack 1.34 + FA Šiauliai II defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

FA Šiauliai II scores more
40%
level
23%
BFA scores more
37%

FA Šiauliai II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "FA Šiauliai II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1 Lyga: FA Šiauliai II 4–2 BFA

FA Šiauliai II beat BFA 4-2 in 1 Lyga on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Šiaulių Gytarių stadionas in Šiauliai.