BFA 1–0 FA Šiauliai II: Result & Stats | 1 Lyga

BFA

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

FA Šiauliai II

3/17/2026

1 Lyga · Round 3Sirvintu stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

BFA51%

×Draw21%

FA Šiauliai II28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BFAExpected goals in this matchFA Šiauliai II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.05

1.48

BFA

2.05

FA Šiauliai II

1.48

BFA creates 39% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 67 away

1.67

creates per match

1.45

1.50

allows per match

2.43

creates per match

BFA

1.67

FA Šiauliai II

1.45

allows per match

BFA

1.50

FA Šiauliai II

2.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

BFA+0.00on par

FA Šiauliai II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BFA ↓

FA Šiauliai II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

BFA or draw

72%

BFA or FA Šiauliai II

79%

Draw or FA Šiauliai II

49%

Winning margin

BFA wins by 2+

29%

FA Šiauliai II wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

BFA 1+ goals

87%

BFA 2+ goals

61%

BFA 3+ goals

33%

FA Šiauliai II 1+ goals

77%

FA Šiauliai II 2+ goals

43%

FA Šiauliai II 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

BFA (draw refunded)

64%

FA Šiauliai II (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BFA at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.50 · 103 matches

FA Šiauliai II away — creates 1.45, concedes 2.43 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BFA attack 1.67 + FA Šiauliai II defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.05

FA Šiauliai II attack 1.45 + BFA defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

BFA scores more

51%

level

21%

FA Šiauliai II scores more

28%

BFA at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "BFA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff