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FA Euro New York vs Ironbound — USL League Two 2018

FA Euro New York
FA Euro New York
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ironbound
Ironbound
7/6/2023USL League TwoUSL League Two · Eastern Conference - 22Poly Prep Country Day School

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

FA Euro New York45%
×Draw23%
Ironbound32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FA Euro New York
1.73
Ironbound
1.43

FA Euro New York creates 21% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 26 away

creates per match

FA Euro New York
1.27
Ironbound
1.62

allows per match

FA Euro New York
1.23
Ironbound
2.19

finishing

FA Euro New York+0.00on par
Ironbound+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FA Euro New York ↓

Ironbound →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

FA Euro New York or draw
68%
FA Euro New York or Ironbound
77%
Draw or Ironbound
55%

Winning margin

FA Euro New York wins by 2+
24%
Ironbound wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

FA Euro New York 1+ goals
82%
FA Euro New York 2+ goals
52%
FA Euro New York 3+ goals
25%
Ironbound 1+ goals
76%
Ironbound 2+ goals
42%
Ironbound 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

FA Euro New York (draw refunded)
58%
Ironbound (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FA Euro New York at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.23 · 22 matches

Ironbound away — creates 1.62, concedes 2.19 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FA Euro New York attack 1.27 + Ironbound defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.73

Ironbound attack 1.62 + FA Euro New York defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

FA Euro New York scores more
45%
level
23%
Ironbound scores more
32%

FA Euro New York at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "FA Euro New York will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: FA Euro New York 1–0 Ironbound

FA Euro New York beat Ironbound 1-0 in USL League Two on July 6, 2023.

The match was played at Poly Prep Country Day School in New York City.