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FA 2000 vs Vanløse — 3. Division 2021

FA 2000
FA 2000
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Vanløse
Vanløse
10/25/20253. Division3. Division · Round 13Frederiksberg Idraetspark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

FA 200050%
×Draw25%
Vanløse24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FA 2000
1.56
Vanløse
1.00

FA 2000 creates 56% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 64 away

creates per match

FA 2000
1.60
Vanløse
1.05

allows per match

FA 2000
0.96
Vanløse
1.52

finishing

FA 2000+0.00on par
Vanløse+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FA 2000 ↓

Vanløse →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

FA 2000 or draw
76%
FA 2000 or Vanløse
75%
Draw or Vanløse
50%

Winning margin

FA 2000 wins by 2+
26%
Vanløse wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

FA 2000 1+ goals
79%
FA 2000 2+ goals
46%
FA 2000 3+ goals
21%
Vanløse 1+ goals
63%
Vanløse 2+ goals
26%
Vanløse 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

FA 2000 (draw refunded)
67%
Vanløse (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FA 2000 at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.96 · 48 matches

Vanløse away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.52 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FA 2000 attack 1.60 + Vanløse defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.56

Vanløse attack 1.05 + FA 2000 defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

FA 2000 scores more
50%
level
25%
Vanløse scores more
24%

FA 2000 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "FA 2000 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FA 2000 vs Vanløse

FA 2000 beat Vanløse 3-0 in 3. Division on October 25, 2025.

The match was played at Frederiksberg Idraetspark in Frederiksberg.