FA 2000 4–1 Slagelse B&I: Result & Stats

FA 2000

FT

4 – 1

Slagelse B&I

8/22/2020

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Jens Jessens Vej bane 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

FA 200042%

×Draw23%

Slagelse B&I35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FA 2000Expected goals in this matchSlagelse B&I

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.62

FA 2000

1.80

Slagelse B&I

1.62

FA 2000 creates 11% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 5 away

2.00

creates per match

1.80

1.44

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

FA 2000

2.00

Slagelse B&I

1.80

allows per match

FA 2000

1.44

Slagelse B&I

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FA 2000+0.00on par

Slagelse B&I+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FA 2000 ↓

Slagelse B&I →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

FA 2000 or draw

65%

FA 2000 or Slagelse B&I

77%

Draw or Slagelse B&I

58%

Winning margin

FA 2000 wins by 2+

22%

Slagelse B&I wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

FA 2000 1+ goals

83%

FA 2000 2+ goals

54%

FA 2000 3+ goals

27%

Slagelse B&I 1+ goals

80%

Slagelse B&I 2+ goals

48%

Slagelse B&I 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

FA 2000 (draw refunded)

55%

Slagelse B&I (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FA 2000 at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

Slagelse B&I away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FA 2000 attack 2.00 + Slagelse B&I defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.80

Slagelse B&I attack 1.80 + FA 2000 defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

FA 2000 scores more

42%

level

23%

Slagelse B&I scores more

35%

FA 2000 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "FA 2000 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff