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FA 2000 vs Naestved — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

FA 2000
FA 2000
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Naestved
Naestved
3/12/20222nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 18Frederiksberg IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

FA 200039%
×Draw25%
Naestved36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FA 2000
1.46
Naestved
1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 36 home / 43 away

creates per match

FA 2000
1.53
Naestved
1.19

allows per match

FA 2000
1.58
Naestved
1.40

finishing

FA 2000+0.00on par
Naestved+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FA 2000 ↓

Naestved →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

FA 2000 or draw
64%
FA 2000 or Naestved
75%
Draw or Naestved
61%

Winning margin

FA 2000 wins by 2+
19%
Naestved wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

FA 2000 1+ goals
77%
FA 2000 2+ goals
43%
FA 2000 3+ goals
18%
Naestved 1+ goals
75%
Naestved 2+ goals
40%
Naestved 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

FA 2000 (draw refunded)
52%
Naestved (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FA 2000 at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.58 · 36 matches

Naestved away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.40 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FA 2000 attack 1.53 + Naestved defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.46

Naestved attack 1.19 + FA 2000 defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

FA 2000 scores more
39%
level
25%
Naestved scores more
36%

FA 2000 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "FA 2000 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FA 2000 vs Naestved

FA 2000 beat Naestved 2-1 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on March 12, 2022.

The match was played at Frederiksberg IP in Frederiksberg.