FA 2000 0–2 Kolding IF: Result & Stats

FA 2000

FT

0 – 2

Kolding IF

J. Kiilerich Rask 86'

T. Mikkelsen 64'

10/6/2021

2nd Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 4Frederiksberg IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

FA 200028%

×Draw24%

Kolding IF48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FA 2000Expected goals in this matchKolding IF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.64

FA 2000

1.20

Kolding IF

1.64

Kolding IF creates 37% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 33 away

1.54

creates per match

1.73

1.54

allows per match

0.85

creates per match

FA 2000

1.54

Kolding IF

1.73

allows per match

FA 2000

1.54

Kolding IF

0.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FA 2000+0.00on par

Kolding IF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FA 2000 ↓

Kolding IF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

FA 2000 or draw

52%

FA 2000 or Kolding IF

76%

Draw or Kolding IF

72%

Winning margin

FA 2000 wins by 2+

11%

Kolding IF wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

FA 2000 1+ goals

70%

FA 2000 2+ goals

34%

FA 2000 3+ goals

12%

Kolding IF 1+ goals

81%

Kolding IF 2+ goals

49%

Kolding IF 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

FA 2000 (draw refunded)

37%

Kolding IF (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FA 2000 at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.54 · 35 matches

Kolding IF away — creates 1.73, concedes 0.85 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FA 2000 attack 1.54 + Kolding IF defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.20

Kolding IF attack 1.73 + FA 2000 defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

FA 2000 scores more

28%

level

24%

Kolding IF scores more

48%

Kolding IF at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Kolding IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

64'

T. Mikkelsen

86'

J. Kiilerich Rask

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff