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FA 2000 vs KFUM Roskilde — Friendlies Clubs 2026

FA 2000
FA 2000
FT
2 – 1
KFUM Roskilde
KFUM Roskilde
8/15/2020Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Jens Jessens Vej bane 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

FA 200048%
×Draw23%
KFUM Roskilde29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FA 2000
1.83
KFUM Roskilde
1.39

FA 2000 creates 32% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 3 away

creates per match

FA 2000
2.00
KFUM Roskilde
1.33

allows per match

FA 2000
1.44
KFUM Roskilde
1.67

finishing

FA 2000+0.00on par
KFUM Roskilde+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FA 2000 ↓

KFUM Roskilde →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

FA 2000 or draw
71%
FA 2000 or KFUM Roskilde
77%
Draw or KFUM Roskilde
52%

Winning margin

FA 2000 wins by 2+
26%
KFUM Roskilde wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

FA 2000 1+ goals
84%
FA 2000 2+ goals
54%
FA 2000 3+ goals
28%
KFUM Roskilde 1+ goals
75%
KFUM Roskilde 2+ goals
40%
KFUM Roskilde 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

FA 2000 (draw refunded)
62%
KFUM Roskilde (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FA 2000 at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

KFUM Roskilde away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FA 2000 attack 2.00 + KFUM Roskilde defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.83

KFUM Roskilde attack 1.33 + FA 2000 defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

FA 2000 scores more
48%
level
23%
KFUM Roskilde scores more
29%

FA 2000 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "FA 2000 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FA 2000 vs KFUM Roskilde

FA 2000 beat KFUM Roskilde 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on August 15, 2020.

The match was played at Jens Jessens Vej bane 7 in Frederiksberg.