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FA 2000 vs Frem — 3. Division 2021

FA 2000
FA 2000
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Frem
Frem
L. Svensson 57', 32'
M. Rasmussen 14'
8/9/20253. Division3. Division · Round 2Frederiksberg Idraetspark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

FA 200039%
×Draw26%
Frem35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FA 2000
1.42
Frem
1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 48 home / 48 away

creates per match

FA 2000
1.60
Frem
1.69

allows per match

FA 2000
0.96
Frem
1.23

finishing

FA 2000+0.00on par
Frem+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FA 2000 ↓

Frem →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

FA 2000 or draw
65%
FA 2000 or Frem
74%
Draw or Frem
61%

Winning margin

FA 2000 wins by 2+
19%
Frem wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

FA 2000 1+ goals
76%
FA 2000 2+ goals
41%
FA 2000 3+ goals
17%
Frem 1+ goals
73%
Frem 2+ goals
38%
Frem 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

FA 2000 (draw refunded)
53%
Frem (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FA 2000 at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.96 · 48 matches

Frem away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.23 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FA 2000 attack 1.60 + Frem defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.42

Frem attack 1.69 + FA 2000 defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

FA 2000 scores more
39%
level
26%
Frem scores more
35%

FA 2000 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "FA 2000 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
M. Rasmussen
32'
L. Svensson
57'
L. Svensson
FA
Frem
S. Haile
Manager: S. Haile
H. Gundersen
Manager: H. Gundersen

3. Division: FA 2000 2–1 Frem

FA 2000 beat Frem 2-1 in 3. Division on August 9, 2025.

Goals: M. Rasmussen (14'), L. Svensson (32', 57').

The match was played at Frederiksberg Idraetspark in Frederiksberg.