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FA 2000 vs Frem — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

FA 2000
FA 2000
FT
4 – 4
Frem
Frem
11/2/20192nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 15Frederiksberg IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

FA 200043%
×Draw25%
Frem32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FA 2000
1.55
Frem
1.31

FA 2000 creates 18% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 54 away

creates per match

FA 2000
1.54
Frem
1.07

allows per match

FA 2000
1.54
Frem
1.56

finishing

FA 2000+0.00on par
Frem+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FA 2000 ↓

Frem →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

FA 2000 or draw
68%
FA 2000 or Frem
75%
Draw or Frem
57%

Winning margin

FA 2000 wins by 2+
21%
Frem wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

FA 2000 1+ goals
79%
FA 2000 2+ goals
46%
FA 2000 3+ goals
20%
Frem 1+ goals
73%
Frem 2+ goals
38%
Frem 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

FA 2000 (draw refunded)
57%
Frem (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FA 2000 at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.54 · 35 matches

Frem away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.56 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FA 2000 attack 1.54 + Frem defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.55

Frem attack 1.07 + FA 2000 defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

FA 2000 scores more
43%
level
25%
Frem scores more
32%

FA 2000 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "FA 2000 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2nd Division - Group 1: FA 2000 4–4 Frem

FA 2000 and Frem drew 4-4 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on November 2, 2019.

The match was played at Frederiksberg IP in Frederiksberg.