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F91 Dudelange vs UN Kaerjeng 97 — National Division 2018

F91 Dudelange
F91 Dudelange
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
UN Kaerjeng 97
UN Kaerjeng 97
9/3/2023National DivisionNational Division · Round 5Stade Jos Nosbaum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

F91 Dudelange59%
×Draw21%
UN Kaerjeng 9720%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

F91 Dudelange
2.08
UN Kaerjeng 97
1.14

F91 Dudelange creates 82% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 45 away

creates per match

F91 Dudelange
2.45
UN Kaerjeng 97
1.09

allows per match

F91 Dudelange
1.19
UN Kaerjeng 97
1.71

finishing

F91 Dudelange+0.00on par
UN Kaerjeng 97+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

F91 Dudelange ↓

UN Kaerjeng 97 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

F91 Dudelange or draw
80%
F91 Dudelange or UN Kaerjeng 97
79%
Draw or UN Kaerjeng 97
41%

Winning margin

F91 Dudelange wins by 2+
36%
UN Kaerjeng 97 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

F91 Dudelange 1+ goals
87%
F91 Dudelange 2+ goals
61%
F91 Dudelange 3+ goals
34%
UN Kaerjeng 97 1+ goals
68%
UN Kaerjeng 97 2+ goals
32%
UN Kaerjeng 97 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

F91 Dudelange (draw refunded)
74%
UN Kaerjeng 97 (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

F91 Dudelange at home — creates 2.45, concedes 1.19 · 111 matches

UN Kaerjeng 97 away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.71 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

F91 Dudelange attack 2.45 + UN Kaerjeng 97 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 2.08

UN Kaerjeng 97 attack 1.09 + F91 Dudelange defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

F91 Dudelange scores more
59%
level
21%
UN Kaerjeng 97 scores more
20%

F91 Dudelange at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "F91 Dudelange will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

F91 Dudelange 4 – 1 UN Kaerjeng 97

F91 Dudelange beat UN Kaerjeng 97 4-1 in National Division on September 3, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Jos Nosbaum in Dudelange.