F91 Dudelange 1–3 Mamer: Result & Stats

F91 Dudelange

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Mamer

2/22/2026

National Division · Round 18Stade Jos Nosbaum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

F91 Dudelange61%

×Draw19%

Mamer20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

F91 DudelangeExpected goals in this matchMamer

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.36

1.29

F91 Dudelange

2.36

Mamer

1.29

F91 Dudelange creates 83% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 15 away

2.45

creates per match

1.40

1.19

allows per match

2.27

creates per match

F91 Dudelange

2.45

Mamer

1.40

allows per match

F91 Dudelange

1.19

Mamer

2.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

F91 Dudelange+0.00on par

Mamer+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

F91 Dudelange ↓

Mamer →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

F91 Dudelange or draw

80%

F91 Dudelange or Mamer

81%

Draw or Mamer

39%

Winning margin

F91 Dudelange wins by 2+

39%

Mamer wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

F91 Dudelange 1+ goals

90%

F91 Dudelange 2+ goals

68%

F91 Dudelange 3+ goals

41%

Mamer 1+ goals

72%

Mamer 2+ goals

37%

Mamer 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

F91 Dudelange (draw refunded)

75%

Mamer (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

F91 Dudelange at home — creates 2.45, concedes 1.19 · 111 matches

Mamer away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

F91 Dudelange attack 2.45 + Mamer defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 2.36

Mamer attack 1.40 + F91 Dudelange defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

F91 Dudelange scores more

61%

level

19%

Mamer scores more

20%

F91 Dudelange at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "F91 Dudelange will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff