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F91 Dudelange vs Jeunesse Canach — National Division 2018

F91 Dudelange
F91 Dudelange
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Jeunesse Canach
Jeunesse Canach
10/1/2025National DivisionNational Division · Round 7Stade Jos Nosbaum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

F91 Dudelange55%
×Draw22%
Jeunesse Canach23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

F91 Dudelange
1.89
Jeunesse Canach
1.13

F91 Dudelange creates 67% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 15 away

creates per match

F91 Dudelange
2.45
Jeunesse Canach
1.07

allows per match

F91 Dudelange
1.19
Jeunesse Canach
1.33

finishing

F91 Dudelange+0.00on par
Jeunesse Canach+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

F91 Dudelange ↓

Jeunesse Canach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

F91 Dudelange or draw
77%
F91 Dudelange or Jeunesse Canach
78%
Draw or Jeunesse Canach
45%

Winning margin

F91 Dudelange wins by 2+
32%
Jeunesse Canach wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

F91 Dudelange 1+ goals
85%
F91 Dudelange 2+ goals
56%
F91 Dudelange 3+ goals
29%
Jeunesse Canach 1+ goals
68%
Jeunesse Canach 2+ goals
31%
Jeunesse Canach 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

F91 Dudelange (draw refunded)
71%
Jeunesse Canach (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

F91 Dudelange at home — creates 2.45, concedes 1.19 · 111 matches

Jeunesse Canach away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

F91 Dudelange attack 2.45 + Jeunesse Canach defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.89

Jeunesse Canach attack 1.07 + F91 Dudelange defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

F91 Dudelange scores more
55%
level
22%
Jeunesse Canach scores more
23%

F91 Dudelange at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "F91 Dudelange will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: F91 Dudelange vs Jeunesse Canach

Jeunesse Canach beat F91 Dudelange 1-0 in National Division on October 1, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Jos Nosbaum in Dudelange.