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F91 Dudelange vs Etzella Ettelbruck — National Division 2018

F91 Dudelange
F91 Dudelange
FT
6 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Etzella Ettelbruck
Etzella Ettelbruck
9/26/2021National DivisionNational Division · Round 8Stade Jos Nosbaum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

F91 Dudelange63%
×Draw19%
Etzella Ettelbruck18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

F91 Dudelange
2.39
Etzella Ettelbruck
1.23

F91 Dudelange creates 94% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 66 away

creates per match

F91 Dudelange
2.45
Etzella Ettelbruck
1.27

allows per match

F91 Dudelange
1.19
Etzella Ettelbruck
2.33

finishing

F91 Dudelange+0.00on par
Etzella Ettelbruck+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

F91 Dudelange ↓

Etzella Ettelbruck →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

F91 Dudelange or draw
82%
F91 Dudelange or Etzella Ettelbruck
81%
Draw or Etzella Ettelbruck
37%

Winning margin

F91 Dudelange wins by 2+
41%
Etzella Ettelbruck wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

F91 Dudelange 1+ goals
91%
F91 Dudelange 2+ goals
69%
F91 Dudelange 3+ goals
42%
Etzella Ettelbruck 1+ goals
71%
Etzella Ettelbruck 2+ goals
35%
Etzella Ettelbruck 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

F91 Dudelange (draw refunded)
77%
Etzella Ettelbruck (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

F91 Dudelange at home — creates 2.45, concedes 1.19 · 111 matches

Etzella Ettelbruck away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.33 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

F91 Dudelange attack 2.45 + Etzella Ettelbruck defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.39

Etzella Ettelbruck attack 1.27 + F91 Dudelange defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

F91 Dudelange scores more
63%
level
19%
Etzella Ettelbruck scores more
18%

F91 Dudelange at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "F91 Dudelange will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: F91 Dudelange vs Etzella Ettelbruck

F91 Dudelange beat Etzella Ettelbruck 6-1 in National Division on September 26, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Jos Nosbaum in Dudelange.