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Førde vs HamKam II — 3. Division - Girone 2 2020

Førde
Førde
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
HamKam II
HamKam II
6/25/20233. Division - Girone 23. Division - Girone 2 · Group 2 - 11Førde Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Førde63%
×Draw18%
HamKam II19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Førde
2.70
HamKam II
1.45

Førde creates 86% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 13 away

creates per match

Førde
2.85
HamKam II
1.62

allows per match

Førde
1.27
HamKam II
2.54

finishing

Førde+0.00on par
HamKam II+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Førde ↓

HamKam II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Førde or draw
81%
Førde or HamKam II
82%
Draw or HamKam II
37%

Winning margin

Førde wins by 2+
43%
HamKam II wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Førde 1+ goals
93%
Førde 2+ goals
75%
Førde 3+ goals
50%
HamKam II 1+ goals
77%
HamKam II 2+ goals
42%
HamKam II 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Førde (draw refunded)
77%
HamKam II (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Førde at home — creates 2.85, concedes 1.27 · 26 matches

HamKam II away — creates 1.62, concedes 2.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Førde attack 2.85 + HamKam II defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 2.70

HamKam II attack 1.62 + Førde defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Førde scores more
63%
level
18%
HamKam II scores more
19%

Førde at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Førde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 2: Førde 3–1 HamKam II

Førde beat HamKam II 3-1 in 3. Division - Girone 2 on June 25, 2023.

The match was played at Førde Stadion in Førde.