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Førde vs Aalesund II — 3. Division - Girone 2 2020

Førde
Førde
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Aalesund II
Aalesund II
6/11/20223. Division - Girone 23. Division - Girone 2 · Girone 2 - 10Førde Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Førde61%
×Draw19%
Aalesund II20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Førde
2.41
Aalesund II
1.33

Førde creates 81% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 33 away

creates per match

Førde
2.85
Aalesund II
1.39

allows per match

Førde
1.27
Aalesund II
1.97

finishing

Førde+0.00on par
Aalesund II+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Førde ↓

Aalesund II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Førde or draw
80%
Førde or Aalesund II
81%
Draw or Aalesund II
39%

Winning margin

Førde wins by 2+
39%
Aalesund II wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Førde 1+ goals
91%
Førde 2+ goals
69%
Førde 3+ goals
43%
Aalesund II 1+ goals
74%
Aalesund II 2+ goals
38%
Aalesund II 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Førde (draw refunded)
75%
Aalesund II (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Førde at home — creates 2.85, concedes 1.27 · 26 matches

Aalesund II away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.97 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Førde attack 2.85 + Aalesund II defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 2.41

Aalesund II attack 1.39 + Førde defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Førde scores more
61%
level
19%
Aalesund II scores more
20%

Førde at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Førde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Førde vs Aalesund II

Førde and Aalesund II drew 1-1 in 3. Division - Girone 2 on June 11, 2022.

The match was played at Førde Stadion in Førde.