Ezulwini United 0–1 Ubombo Sugar: Result & Stats

Ezulwini United

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Ubombo Sugar

2/15/2026

Premier League · Round 18

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Ezulwini United33%

×Draw28%

Ubombo Sugar39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ezulwini UnitedExpected goals in this matchUbombo Sugar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.20

Ezulwini United

1.09

Ubombo Sugar

1.20

Ubombo Sugar creates 10% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 15 away

0.98

creates per match

1.13

1.27

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Ezulwini United

0.98

Ubombo Sugar

1.13

allows per match

Ezulwini United

1.27

Ubombo Sugar

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ezulwini United+0.00on par

Ubombo Sugar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ezulwini United ↓

Ubombo Sugar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Ezulwini United or draw

61%

Ezulwini United or Ubombo Sugar

72%

Draw or Ubombo Sugar

67%

Winning margin

Ezulwini United wins by 2+

13%

Ubombo Sugar wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Ezulwini United 1+ goals

66%

Ezulwini United 2+ goals

30%

Ezulwini United 3+ goals

10%

Ubombo Sugar 1+ goals

70%

Ubombo Sugar 2+ goals

34%

Ubombo Sugar 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Ezulwini United (draw refunded)

46%

Ubombo Sugar (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ezulwini United at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.27 · 41 matches

Ubombo Sugar away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ezulwini United attack 0.98 + Ubombo Sugar defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.09

Ubombo Sugar attack 1.13 + Ezulwini United defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Ezulwini United scores more

33%

level

28%

Ubombo Sugar scores more

39%

Ubombo Sugar at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Ubombo Sugar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff