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Ezulwini United vs Sisonkhe — Premier League 2020

Ezulwini United
Ezulwini United
FT
1 – 0
Sisonkhe
Sisonkhe
4/17/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 15Mhlume Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Ezulwini United43%
×Draw29%
Sisonkhe28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ezulwini United
1.21
Sisonkhe
0.91

Ezulwini United creates 33% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 28 away

creates per match

Ezulwini United
0.98
Sisonkhe
0.54

allows per match

Ezulwini United
1.27
Sisonkhe
1.43

finishing

Ezulwini United+0.00on par
Sisonkhe+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ezulwini United ↓

Sisonkhe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Ezulwini United or draw
72%
Ezulwini United or Sisonkhe
71%
Draw or Sisonkhe
57%

Winning margin

Ezulwini United wins by 2+
19%
Sisonkhe wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Ezulwini United 1+ goals
70%
Ezulwini United 2+ goals
34%
Ezulwini United 3+ goals
12%
Sisonkhe 1+ goals
60%
Sisonkhe 2+ goals
23%
Sisonkhe 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Ezulwini United (draw refunded)
61%
Sisonkhe (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ezulwini United at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.27 · 41 matches

Sisonkhe away — creates 0.54, concedes 1.43 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ezulwini United attack 0.98 + Sisonkhe defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.21

Sisonkhe attack 0.54 + Ezulwini United defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Ezulwini United scores more
43%
level
29%
Sisonkhe scores more
28%

Ezulwini United at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Ezulwini United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Ezulwini United 1–0 Sisonkhe

Ezulwini United beat Sisonkhe 1-0 in Premier League on April 17, 2025.

The match was played at Mhlume Stadium in Siteki.