Ezulwini United 0–3 Rangers FC: Result & Stats

Ezulwini United

FT

0 – 3

Rangers FC

1/12/2024

Premier League · Round 10Prince of Wales Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Ezulwini United38%

×Draw28%

Rangers FC34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ezulwini UnitedExpected goals in this matchRangers FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.10

Ezulwini United

1.19

Rangers FC

1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 41 home / 56 away

0.98

creates per match

0.93

1.27

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Ezulwini United

0.98

Rangers FC

0.93

allows per match

Ezulwini United

1.27

Rangers FC

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ezulwini United+0.00on par

Rangers FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ezulwini United ↓

Rangers FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Ezulwini United or draw

66%

Ezulwini United or Rangers FC

72%

Draw or Rangers FC

62%

Winning margin

Ezulwini United wins by 2+

16%

Rangers FC wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Ezulwini United 1+ goals

70%

Ezulwini United 2+ goals

33%

Ezulwini United 3+ goals

12%

Rangers FC 1+ goals

67%

Rangers FC 2+ goals

30%

Rangers FC 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Ezulwini United (draw refunded)

53%

Rangers FC (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ezulwini United at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.27 · 41 matches

Rangers FC away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.39 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ezulwini United attack 0.98 + Rangers FC defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.19

Rangers FC attack 0.93 + Ezulwini United defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Ezulwini United scores more

38%

level

28%

Rangers FC scores more

34%

Ezulwini United at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Ezulwini United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff